Here is a good article from Dr. Y. L. R. Moorthi in WSJ. Dr. Moorthi is Professor at one of the prestigious management institute in India. He has great mastery and authority on business management subject.
He has made some very good observations in his article, particularly about Nokia being the #1 camera seller in India and Airtel being the #1 music seller in India.
Who sells the largest number of cameras in India?
Your guess is likely to be Sony, Canon or Nikon. The answer is: None of the above. The winner is Nokia, whose main line of business in India is not cameras but cellphones.
The reason is that cameras bundled with cellphones are outselling standalone cameras. Now, what prevents the cellphone from replacing the camera outright? Nothing at all.
Try this. Who runs the biggest music business in India? The answer is Airtel. By selling caller tunes (that play for 30 seconds) Airtel earns more than music companies do by selling albums.
However, I don't completely agree about some of his other observations and predictions.
Remember, if there is one place where Newton's law of gravity is applicable besides physics it is in electronic hardware, where prices consistently fall. Between 1977 and 1991, prices of the now-dead VCR crashed to one third of their original levels in India. PC prices also dropped. If this trend repeats itself, then videoconferencing prices will also crash. Imagine the fate of airlines then.
Basic difference between VCR, PC and Videoconferencing is this - VCR and PC each were products by itself. Once could use each of these products (VCR with a cassette and PC with monitor, of-course) by itself. Videoconferencing is not a product but a service. Hardware is just one component of it. Other one, and major one, is bandwidth. Looking at struggle between and Apple and AT&T in USA over bandwidth and AT&T planning to charge more heavy usage - chances are Videoconferencing cost possibly might go up in short to mid term before (after considerable time) it will come down.
Same is true for his example of airline industry.
In 2008, who was the toughest competitor to British Airways for international flights in India? Singapore Airlines? Indian Airlines? Maybe, but there is a more interesting answer: The videoconferencing services of Hewlett-Packard and Cisco.
This observations is true for only business travel. Although, videoconferencing will adversely impact business travel in India, most of this impact will be nullified by new middle class leisure travelers. This new, upper middle class is air traveling more and traveling frequent. And it is becoming very common for this class to fly to Dubai, Malaysia, Thailand and even to Europe for small and long vacations. So, I think, Yes, there will be impact and airlines will need to change their offering to attract families and vacationers. But they will not have the same fate as type-writers or fountain pens.